Episode 63 - Watch Predictions For 2020

Published on Thu, 09 Jan 2020 09:31:00 -0800

Synopsis

Andrew and Everett discuss their predictions for the watch industry in 2020. They expect to see an increase in simple, unadorned sports and dress watches, more gold watches, and a proliferation of unisex watch designs aimed at both men and women. They also predict that microbrands will face more challenges, with fewer new brands emerging and established microbrands focusing on authorized dealer relationships. Additionally, they foresee Timex releasing several hyped watches and potentially filling the void left by Seiko's move upmarket, while Seiko continues pushing into higher price points and Orient emerges as an affordable alternative.

They also briefly touch on their plans to review a noSET sector dive watch and a Zen 556A limited edition piece in upcoming episodes. Toward the end, they debate the merits of the film "A Knight's Tale," with Andrew defending it as a charming, deliberately campy period piece, while Everett sees it as a typical 90s heartthrob movie transplanted to medieval times.

Transcript

Speaker
Andrew Hello, fellow watch lovers, nerds, enthusiasts, or however you identify. This is the 40 in 20 podcast with your host, Andrew, and my good friend Everett. Here, we talk about watches, food, drinks, life, and other things we like. Everett, how are you?
Everett Just killing it, doing great. You know, end of the weekend, as always, sitting down with my good friend for a drink. I haven't seen you in a couple of weeks.
Andrew Yeah, it was weird to have an episode publish and not have seen you last week. I didn't know how I felt about it. I was a little panicky. I've been going through some withdrawals, but here I am back and feeling better. I got my fix.
Everett Yeah, so you had some illness along the way.
Andrew Yeah, a little bit. A little touch of food poisoning on New Year's Eve, but you know, I'm better now.
Everett All right, good. Better now. Good. I went to California, as you know, and as some of you know, did a little watch meet up in San Francisco with some boys down there. Really good hosts. That was fun. I'm jealous.
Andrew That was fun. You did text me shortly after I got off work on Saturday. Are you on the road?
Everett Right. You're headed here, right? Yeah. Yeah. You know, it was a little weird, right? I felt a little anxiety as I was getting close. I was telling Kim, you know, I feel nervous. I don't know what I feel nervous about.
Andrew Well, people are going to see you and you're off keto.
Everett Yeah. Um, but yeah, that was good. You know, California was, was always great. Kim's family is down there. And so we spent a lot of time with her, with her brother and his family and Kim's father and, uh, Kim's mom and grandma, you know, the, the full sort of the, the whole meal deal. Um, lots of kids, lots of action. My kids got lice along the way from other kids there, or just because they're, they're feral, hard to say. Hard to say. We think that maybe we brought it with us. Oh. Yeah. One of my children vomited in the car we were borrowing. That was brutal. That was brutal.
Andrew Was it able to remain contained or did it get everywhere?
Everett Yeah, no. I mean, there's no... I can't recall any circumstance that is anything like I would describe as contained. Oh my God. Yeah. It was bad, man. Oh my God. that, you know, it sort of makes for a whole complete experience.
Andrew Very family vacation. Yeah. Very National Lampoon family vacation.
Everett Yeah. I mean, there were parts of it that felt that way. So, you know, and it's weird, right? It's sort of weird being in another place that's not, you know, your home. And so you're already out of sorts. And then, you know, my wife has ways she works with her family, and that's different than the way we work in our family. And so there's just some tension there. Nothing that is unacceptable or abnormal, but it's just, it can create some stress.
Andrew Some stress. It's hard to live by the graciousness of others, to not be able to retreat to your own bedroom. Everything that you are existing with is by the goodness of somebody else.
Everett Yeah.
Andrew That's a hard thing to adjust to. I don't particularly like it either. Right. And I know you don't.
Everett How about you? How was your holiday?
Andrew It was good. It was nice to have family in town because obviously we just had a baby. Or I didn't have a baby. My wife had a baby, but it was nice to have... But you did most of the work. Most of it. That's what I keep telling her. And she just gives me this really confused look, like she doesn't remember it the same way that I do. But it's whatever. But so it was nice to have family in town and to not go anywhere. And we had a really good reason to not go anywhere. So folks are coming down to see us and we had a whole bunch of people bring us dinners. And so we've had to do very little cooking over the last couple of weeks. And it was... Pretty low-key, very enjoyable. And then I got to go back to work on Christmas Day, which was actually kind of a fun day to work. Yeah? Yeah, I've always enjoyed working holidays. I worked in restaurants and bars in college, and then obviously being in the army, holidays aren't really a thing. Yeah, right. Unless they are. It's either, like, you're definitely off or you're definitely working.
Everett There's none of the in-between.
Andrew But I always kind of enjoyed it. Everyone's just typically in a good mood. Sure. We're all just kind of in this shit storm together. We might as well enjoy ourselves. So back to work and just doing my thing, plugging away. And yeah, it was good. But barring the food poisoning on, on New Year's Eve, I, uh, like about six o'clock in the evening, I started to not feel great. And I just kind of like lay low, hit the couch, kind of napped a little bit. And then at 8 PM I went and, uh, did something horrible to the toilet and was certain I was going to die. So I just got naked and laid down in the bathtub because whatever was going to happen was just going to need to be rinsed off. And probably a half hour later, Sam came in and she's like, uh, what's going on here? Not doing so good. Just leave me be. So, uh, yeah, had that and.
Everett Hit you in the head with an orange.
Andrew But fortunately I recovered. And yeah, I'm back, back to 100%. Good. Yeah. Good. I'm glad you're here. And so a true and honest Happy New Year. This is our second episode of the new year, but the first time we're recording in the new year.
Everett Yeah, that's right. Yeah, that's right. So our first or our last episode was recorded. Gosh, one on the 22nd, something like that. Yeah. Yeah. 21st or 22nd. So, yeah, this is This has been several weeks since we recorded and the most current stuff. So there's some new stuff happening, right? We have we have and we're not going to talk too much about it today because we're going to talk about it at length. We believe in the next week's episode, but we have a some guests that we're hosting a notice sector drive, dive watch, not a drive watch, a dive watch. This is their skin diver. And I love it. Yeah, I love it a lot. Yeah, I was thinking they're probably not getting it back.
Andrew Oh, they're definitely not getting it back. Right. Yeah. I'll fight you for this.
Everett You know, uh, gosh, I'm sort of blown away.
Andrew Like I said, I don't want to talk about, I don't want, I don't want to spoil it too much, but we can just tease it by saying y'all are going to really, really enjoy next week's episode.
Everett Is it okay for me to say that at 425 bucks, this is bar none the best deal in watches right now?
Andrew I think it could be reasonable. Yeah. I mean, I think that that could be a reasonable statement to be making.
Everett I will, I will admit to being slightly excited. You don't say. Slightly excited, but so in my slightly excited state, that is my feeling right now.
Andrew But I don't know that it's hyperbole there. I think, I think this is one of the first watches we've come across that can go head to head with the Saab and is at the same price point, just a touch more. But this this watch can very easily go head to head with the Saab.
Everett And you know, well, we'll just leave it there. Yeah, we'll just leave it there. Yeah. So also, we've got this. Some of you guys will have seen on the Instagram. Well, somebody has it. Well, so Andrew hasn't seen it yet, and he's feeling a little sad about it. But we've got a Zen 556 A, A, not I. I believe that's right. A, which is the limited edition Redhead.
Andrew Wouldn't know we don't have it here.
Everett Uh, we, one of our listeners sent us a Zen 5 5 6. We're going to have that in rotation for a little while, probably get some good pictures of it. It's not our watch, so we're going to be very careful. Brutal with it because it's not our watch.
Andrew Drive it like you stole it, right?
Everett Uh, you know, I don't know that I have authority to say whose it is or the circumstances of us having it right now. So, uh, I will, I will just leave it at that, but we've got that Zen 5 5 6 in, in rotation and it's been a pleasure. I'm sure it has been. It's been a pleasure. You'll get your hands on it. You'll get your dirty, grubby hands on it. Mitz. Mitz. Very soon. But yeah, that's been exciting. Anything else, watch wise, new for you?
Andrew No. No? No, nothing. Nothing? Nothing at all.
Everett All right. Well, thank you for joining us for this episode of For You. Yeah, no, we actually, we're talking about watches today. We are. We're talking about Maybe something a little different than watches, although it's certainly watch focused. We're going to make our predictions for what's going to happen in the year of 2020.
Andrew Which we probably should have done for our last week's episode, but because it was still in the last year, regardless. Don't Monday morning quarterback. We ended the year with our likes of the year, and we're going to start the year with what we think this year has in store for the watch world, for the watch industry, for watch wearers,
Everett Mm hmm. Mm hmm. And you know, in fairness, our focus is always going to be on the affordable categories, because we just that's that's us. So that's a good time to say we've actually kind of crowdsourced this. We didn't crowdsource this in the in the traditional sense, but but we did actually reach out to a number of folks that we trust. Some of the homies, if you will. Some of the homies, you know, folks who are always in the know. Um, always have really thoughtful, um, thoughtful insight into the industry. And so, so before we get started, I just want to, I just want to give a shout out to, uh, I'm going to, I'm going to announce these people by their Instagram handles. Um, but, but they're also real people. I suspect at least for most of them.
Andrew Yeah, they're definitely not Russian sex bots.
Everett Uh, so, uh, Instagram user at middle six feet, uh, if you're not following them, do so. I don't think he's a private account, but maybe he is and then ask and he'll deny you if he wants. But this guy is always plugged in, always thinking about things, has great advice, always linked in to sort of Seiko news. Cat and Catlin over at 10 and 2 Media were immensely helpful. Chad Wright, Instagram user at Chad Wright. If you haven't checked him out, photography is on fucking point. Nick at Orion Watches, just totally plugged in, always thoughtful, really keen on the trends in the watch world, as demonstrated both by the things he says and the watches he makes, you guys. If you're not following Orion Watches, Orion Watches is ahead of the curve, I would say. And of course, our favorite or one of our favorites at Aggressive Timing Habits, who's just sometimes the things he says are uh wild and crazy and yet he's very plugged in i think that man has owned almost every watch on the face of the earth too probably yeah at some point so uh special thanks to those guys uh we'll shout them out again at the end but uh if you're not following those guys you should be and uh because they're they're good folks guys and gals i should say they're all good folks you know uh at ten and two at ten and two media ten and two podcasts those those ladies are Um, I think probably the best podcast, the best watch podcast to listen to right now. Uh, they're more plugged in besides us. Yeah, definitely besides us, but probably actually they're quite a bit ahead of us probably.
Andrew But if you're listening to us, honestly, you're listening to them already, so we don't need to tell you.
Everett Yeah. Yeah. I, I, if you're listening to us, you're listening to them already. Yeah, that's right. So, uh, they're totally plugged in. Um, yeah, that's it. So without further ado, our do without further ado, That's the French version. Oh, because I do is maybe not French.
Andrew Speaking of French, I got some sausage stuffers for Christmas and I'm going to be making andouille sausage tomorrow. I'll bring you some.
Everett Sausage stuffers sounds sexual. It is sexual.
Andrew Have you ever watched a sausage get stuffed? Well, I'll tell you.
Everett I'll bring you some. Andouille. Some sausage. I'm excited. What is it just like organic skin?
Andrew Yeah, just hog, hog, uh, casing. Okay.
Everett Like intestines. Oh, it is. It's actually from the intestines of a pig. That's how you, that's what sausages go in. Do you know the, do you know the deal with the calamari pig bung? Uh, there's this controversy. I don't know if it's real or not. It sounds like, uh, it sounds like a, Not a fairy tale. Urban legend. An urban legend. But I think actually there may be some truth to it, that at a certain point in time there was an inappropriately high percentage of pig bung, literally pig anus, being passed off as calamari in the U.S. market. Have you heard about this?
Andrew I've not heard about that, and I wouldn't be shocked because I know of a restaurant locally that was serving nutria. and got caught doing that. So, yeah, the dark underworld of the food service industry. It wouldn't shock me. No, I would be kind of intrigued to see how that would occur, because it's not, it doesn't have the same structure as the muscle tissue of calamari.
Everett Supposedly, they're remarkably similar. Not only the structure, but the flavor.
Andrew Okay, terrific. The pig butthole is where it's at. But the thing is like, it's not, I mean, an anus doesn't really have the same structure that
Everett Calamari doesn't have the same structure.
Andrew They have the same general shape when the when.
Everett So we're going to know anything about this. So we'll look into this. But if you know anything about this, drop us a line, because that's very interesting to me. So you're going to make sausage. I'm making some sausage and I'll bring it to you. OK, good. OK, good. So. Without further ado. Let's do it. Number one. Simple, unadorned sports slash dress watches. become the main focus of new releases.
Andrew And that's what we've been talking about for, what, three months? That's been kind of our focus. That's where we see the industry going. I don't think that's a bold prediction. I think that was a big factor in 2019 releases. And we're going to see that momentum carry through to probably fall of 20. And then we'll start seeing a trend shift toward I don't know what. Exactly. I can't venture that far. And maybe they won't have to because I think we're going to see micros dropping. I mean, simple skin divers and dress sport watches all year. We're going to see some come out of the big brands. And I think with that, we're going to see a lot of micros launch with simple dress divers as their flagship. I think we'll see a lot fail, but I think we're going to see a lot of micro brands and a lot of Kickstarter brands try to launch with that as their flagship.
Everett Yeah, so I'm going to make two caveats. One is sort of the background on this, which is to say that watch sales are in a really precarious place. Watch sales have been driven by Chinese mainlanders for the last many years, at least, that a huge portion of the luxury watches purchased every year are purchased by folks in mainland China, primarily in Hong Kong. And that relationship has been strained. It's been strained. One of the things that happened is that China increased or set a VAT on luxury goods coming in. It used to be that these folks in mainland China could go to Hong Kong, which is just right there, purchase luxury watches, bring them back. Now, that has become much harder to do, and I think that the VAT is as much as 60% or it's this huge number, which is very expensive, right? If you buy a $10,000 watch, then you bring it back and you pay $6,000 in taxes on that. That's made it less attractive. So there's some mulling going on. That relationship has been strained. Add to that the protests in Hong Kong, and those sales have really taken a hard hit, which has affected the luxury watch market in the whole world, such that the sales of luxury watches are down, you know, as much as 50% of places. This is having the effect of squeezing the market. So I think we're going to see this coloring our entire discussion today.
Andrew What I'm hoping that we see as a result of this is that luxury brands become a little bit more accessible. so their prices can come down a little bit to make them actually accessible. Which is not to say that we want to buy them, but to be on a waiting list for a year for a watch that should be in circulation is absurd to me.
Everett Yeah, that's right. Well, and I don't know that that's going to go away, but it may recede a little bit. So the second caveat to this is that I'm going to make a prediction that's going to go much further down on our list, but I think that we're going to see fewer new microbrands hit the market. So I like your idea of flagship dress, sort of the simple underdrawn dress watches. What I'd like to see is I'd like to see some microbrands make a dedicated dress watch. That'd be cool. Which is something we don't see very often, right? I think that market is probably pretty narrow, but I think that that sort of goes in with this. I think we're going to see those simple, unadorned, not divers, not chunky, rugged, outdoor watches own that segment anymore. I think that more and more and more we're going to see our dress sport and sport divers really take over.
Andrew Your true go anywhere, do anything, one watch watches. Yeah.
Everett Number two. Numero dos. Numero dos. Microbrand GMTs. 2020 is going to be the year of the microbrand GMT. So we're going to see them launch finally? We're going to see them launch. So this is information that we've got from a number of people in, it's not information, it's not any sort of secret intel, but this sort of seems to be the trend from people who kind of should know what they're talking about. But there is a, an amount of ETA 2893s and Sellita 330-1 movements that are sort of hanging out, they're available, they're out there. And it seems very likely that microbrands are going to be making a move towards these fourth-hand GMT watches.
Andrew And I hope that's the case because we, like you said, we have talked to some folks in the know who are planting that goal on their horizon. And I would love to see some accessible GMTs from brands that we know that we love. And it'd be really cool to see some micros try to launch with a GMT as their flagship, as long as they stay in that affordable category. And I know that's hard, but that's the only way they're going to be able to make it. People aren't going to get on board with a micro first watch ringing in north of a thousand for the most part. especially a GMT. And with the excess of movements out there, with the access to movements that are out and available, I think we can see some really cool GMTs coming in from micros. And I cannot wait to get my hands on them.
Everett This is not secret information, although we do have, we have been privy to some sort of insider renders, but EMG Watches has been floating a fourth hand GMT movement these last couple of weeks. Eric sent us some renders of things we're expecting. I don't know if it's the final stuff. I'm not obviously allowed to sort of release that stuff, but... I'll do it, though. But... and Andrew can. But, you know, that's just... that's just one. And we know that there are others out there sort of cooking, too. So this will be the year that we see uh those start to hit market whether or not they come out in 2020 or they're announced in 2020 this will be the year that we're going to start seeing those good yes about time so three this is actually a two-parter so 3a okay so 3a seiko will continue its push into the higher markets in particular with their sport watches into pro specs yep including a release of a true pro specs skx descendant at or around a $500, $475 to $500 MSRP?
Andrew I don't, I disagree that price point. I think that the way Seiko is trending, I think we'll see it probably in the $700 to $800. Sure, sure. Just because that's where everything's trending right now. I think that will be their true entry pro specs if they do launch this. Because as it stands right now, we're seeing that $700, $800, $900 pro spec diver out of Seiko and I don't And they're not struggling with it. Yeah. There's just no, there's no reason for them to introduce an affordable-ish prospect diver when they've got the 5KX line.
Everett And so sort of the second clause to this 3A will be that Seiko will continue to wind down, no surprise to anybody, Seiko is going to continue to wind down its entry-level options. So it's going to be more difficult to get a hundred, you know, a 50 to $150 Seiko automatic, certainly automatic watch. Um, and they're going to continue their push into that prospects, that higher end prospect stuff.
Andrew So the lesson to be learned there is by those SNKs at $75 now. Yes.
Everett Today or yesterday at SNK on a bracelet. Um, black, black dial SNK double O SNK eight Oh nine, uh, 79 bucks. Yeah. Uh, so anything you want to add to that? I,
Andrew I mean, I think, I think that's right on the nail. And I, I don't know if that's even that big of a prediction. That's, that's just following the trend that Seiko has been showing us over the last several months. They're paring down their five series. They're, they're getting rid of the SKX and it's because they don't need the SKX anymore. They filled that void. They've got their prospects line. That's what they want us to be buying. Yeah. That's what they want consumers to be buying. They don't want a prospect diver to go for $200.
Everett Yeah.
Andrew No, because they want you to spend the $700 or the $800 on the Sumo and on the on the Samurai and that whole other suite of watches, and they need to pare down, because their catalog is too deep. They don't need to have 10,000 watches available at the Macy's counter. They just don't. That's not cost effective. I think we're going to see a lot better designed, a lot more thoughtful watches coming out of them, because as they pare down the attention to all these weird... I mean, the ReCraft series is cool, but the ReCraft series is not It doesn't make sense in a business model.
Everett It doesn't have the universal appeal of something like an SKX. No, absolutely not. Yeah, no, I think that that's right. I mean, I think that we're going to see more and more Seiko sort of competing in the same world as, you know, I hesitate to say Tag Heuer. I don't think that they're there yet, but I think that they're pushing closer to that Tag Heuer, perhaps Longines or Oris in that range. They're going to continue to push forward. They're still wider than I think any brand. And when I say wider, I mean their price range is wider than I think any other brand in watches. Oh, absolutely. And it will continue to be that way. That's not going to change.
Andrew No, their catalog just won't consist of 500 SKUs. Yeah. They'll probably get down to 250.
Everett Yeah, I'm not sure. I'm not sure. That's a possibility, though, that they pare down that.
Andrew And that won't happen in 2020, but that, I think, is going to be their long-term goal, is streamlining their production processes to reduce the amount of SKUs that are out there so that when they do drop a new SKU, it's meaningful, that when Seiko drops a new watch, people pay attention. Sure. Because Seiko has new watches all the time that you've never seen before.
Everett Right, right. Well, and I think that maybe this is part of that push, is that Seiko's going to really sort of start plugging more and more of these quote-unquote JDM exclusives into the U.S. market. So I think if there's a plus side to this, I suspect it's that in the U.S. market we're going to start to see more and more of these sexy JDM Seikos.
Andrew And I can't wait for that. Yeah. There's a lot of them that I wish I could just buy at the Macy's counter. Right. Because if they were at the Macy's counter, I'd go buy them. Yeah. As it stands, I'd have to buy them on Amazon. Or from Seiko or Sakura or something like that. Someone online, but regardless, I think Seiko is making the right moves. I wish they hadn't dumped the SKX. It makes sense that they did, but I think they're making some cool moves and I'm excited to see how that changes the watches that they are coming out with and how they maintain their accessibility to the entire watch world and still push themselves up to that Tag Heuer, kind of category of luxury watch.
Everett You know, and I hear a lot of hyperbole from folks, you know, that comment on our show and just generally sort of the watch commenter. The read the comments, the folks in the comments are really lamenting this thing from Seiko. And for good reason, right? It hurts. You know, it hurts to lose that part of Seiko because I think that it's the writings on the wall. We're losing that part of Seiko. And so for those of us that got into the hobby when the question was, do I get an SNK or do I get an SKX, to have that sort of pending elimination of that category, I think is a little disruptive and sad. But at the end of the day, I don't think anyone can blame Seiko for the decisions they're making. I do see the occasional, oh, Seiko's gonna, everybody's gonna turn away from Seiko. No, they're not, right? Seiko knows what the fuck they're doing.
Andrew Yeah, they know. We're going to start seeing Seikos the same caliber as Grand Seikos because they're going to be in direct competition with one another. And that's a good thing. It is going to be harder for folks to get into that affordable watch category when the SNK goes away, when sub $100 automatics are no longer on the field to be able to purchase. But I think that's just going to make for more discerning watch buyers right out of the gate. When people buy a watch, it's going to either be like, oh, it's a Macy counter or they're going to, it's going to be a super thoughtful decision because it's going to hurt a little bit.
Everett Yeah. So on that note, three sub B, three B. Okay. Orient will emerge as the new Seiko.
Andrew I think that's, I think they're, they're starting to show that already. Yeah. Uh, and I, I, I hope that 2020 brings Orient recognizing that they make watches with one glaring fucking flaw that makes you not like the watch. And they start holistically designing their watches in such a way that you don't go, Oh, this is great. But maybe they'll just go towards, Oh, this is really good.
Everett Yeah. Yeah. No, uh, You know, we've lamented various features of, of Orient watches over the, over the, I guess, going on years at this point. Over the years. But yeah, I think that's right. I think that we're going to start to see better releases from Orient. I think Orient's going to focus on targeting this, this, this opportunity, you know, and if they, if they aren't, then they should be, right? Because they are killing it at the entry level. The release of the Kamasu and the Kano are right where they need to be. So I think that we should be looking for Orient to open up its entry level offerings. I'd love to see something in the field watch category from Orient. You know, the Bambino has forever and ever and ever, amen, been the best entry level dress watch, although you and I think agree that it's probably slightly too big for a dress watch.
Andrew Yeah, it's about three millimeters too big.
Everett But still, it's sort of been the one. You know, I think that Orient will expand its entry level in hopefully discreet but tasteful ways, and they will emerge as that entry-level champion.
Andrew Can I make a bold prediction within this category? Please, yes. I think it will not be Orient. I think it should be Orient. I think Orient is poised to be the one to take this role. I don't think it will be.
Everett Okay.
Andrew I think it's going to be Timex. Well, so that is number four on our list. Okay, so I am jumping a little ahead, but I think it's going to be Timex. I wish it would be Boliva though, because I think Boliva is probably the second best position brand in the market. heritage within the brand. They've got great designs. They've got shitty designs, too, but they've got great designs. They make good watches. They are established, and they could really easily fill that void because they're already in all the places that Seiko is in, and they're so well-positioned to fill that vacuum.
Everett You know, I think that I like it in the fairy tale fantasy world. I don't think it happens. I think two problems for Boliva. One, they're Their decision-making department has its head in its ass. But this is the year they could change that. And they got some taint on them. They got some stank on them.
Andrew But they're positioned really well to fill that vacuum. I wish they would. But I do think it'll be Timex.
Everett And so I think with with And certainly, maybe less Longines, but certainly companies like Tissot and Mido, I think are going to plug some of this space.
Andrew I think Tissot has a lot of the same issues that Orient does, though. They create, they drop these watches that you like everything, but one characteristic of it makes it a watch you can't justify buying.
Everett Yeah. Well, so they're all in the running, right? I think that they're all in a good place to sort of take advantage of this.
Andrew I'd love to see Longines do it.
Everett Yeah. Well, and Longine is maybe, uh, a little bit ahead of the rest of the folks in this category.
Andrew I think they're, I think they're just a slightly different segment. Yeah. I don't know if they, I don't know if they're as well positioned to be able to fill a segment they're not already in. Yeah. Whereas Mido is kind of already in there. Uh, Tiso is definitely already in that category. Boliva's already in that category. Citizen's already in that category, but I don't see Citizen making any changes to what they're already doing. And I, I don't think there's anyone else as well positioned to do it as Timex or Boliva. I'd love to see Orient do it, but they're US marketing kind of shit.
Everett So what about Swatch?
Andrew I don't think so.
Everett Okay. Well, so obviously Mito and Tissot are Swatch brands, but I don't think that brand Swatch will. Hard to say. I think that they're also poised. Yeah. So why don't we, I guess that's a good time for us to move on to four, uh, which is that Timex will release at least three super hyped pieces in 2020.
Andrew I think they're good for more than that. I think they're good for at least one a quarter. So four.
Everett Yeah. Okay. I like it. So in, in 2019, 2018, 2019, we saw sort of the, the, small Marlin, the big Marlin, and then obviously the Q Timex.
Andrew Yeah. And I think they've got more, I think they've got more in the queue and they're just waiting to drop them one by one and build on that momentum. And I think we're going to see some awesome stuff coming out of Timex. That's super affordable. That's super on trend with where the watch industry is going and has all the heritage you want out of this awesome brand rebranding itself.
Everett So I wonder about the Q Timex. Um, if you're, you know, I think that Timex, uh, swung and missed a little bit with their American documents. Watch this, this last year, it certainly wasn't a, uh, a chart buster. Um, but, but the Q Timex, I wonder if you don't know anything about watches, is the Q Timex moving the needle? It has to be. I don't think it is. I think for someone who's a sort of Macy's counter, first watch buyer, I don't know that it's moving the needle. I think that they are focusing on the aficionado in a way that is maybe not immediately obvious, but I think that they're reaching for some brand respect.
Andrew Which is what's going to grow that brand. If they, if they get the, the watch industry paying attention to them, they become a conversation in the watch industry. They're going to be known for more than the easy reader, more than the weekender. They're going to be better than the watches that aren't even in the case at Walmart, which I think is what they're trying to do. They're just trying to get into the case at Walmart's. And I think that's, I think the, the American documents is that way. So they're not just on the, you know what I'm saying? Like, they're not just on the spinner. You can't just grab one and put it in your pocket and walk away. Right. They're, they're trying to get in the cases. They're trying to appeal to watch people. And in order to do that, they've got to drop watches that have some cost to them and justify that cost. And they're justifying their cost with, I, even the American documents I think is a miss.
Everett Yeah. I think they missed a little bit on that one.
Andrew But, but for watch people, it was a miss. for people looking to buy an attractive watch at a reasonable price, not a miss.
Everett Yeah, maybe not, right? I think that it was sort of targeting that segment of people that are buying Shinola watches, right?
Andrew Or that would like to. Yeah, right, right. And I think the Q-Timex was such a hit for the watch world that it could be to the detriment of that end that they're trying to reach because they're still not available.
Everett So we'll see.
Andrew You still can't fucking buy them.
Everett We'll see how they negotiate this. But yeah, I think you could be on to something that they may they may step in to fill some of that void too. So. OK. Anything more on that topic?
Andrew What else do you think they're going to drop this year? Because I don't I don't think we ever see dress divers out of out of Timex. I don't think we ever see real dress sport. I think we see some cool retro releases, some some vintage inspired releases. I think we see some good field watch releases, where we're going to see some automatic, cool field watches that are still going to be in that real Timex-y appearance, where you'd recognize it immediately as a Timex. But we're going to see all their upgrades to steel. We're going to see some good PVD out of them this year, I think. And we're going to see huge moves in their movements.
Everett So my response to your question, what do you think they're going to drop? I'm going to separate this into two categories. One, what I think they're going to drop, and two, what I wish they would drop. Okay. I think what we're going to see is a reliance on their back catalog. I think we're going to see some fun reissue slash retro pieces. I think that they're going to release at least one or two more Seiko automatic type watches. I think that we're going to see um just a general shift towards sort of appealing to the retro watch nerd because that's kind of where the market is is right now and i don't think it's going anywhere what i wish they would do what i wish they would do is i wish they would make a serious no shit entry-level automatic expedition that'd be cool shit and i think that could be a 2020 announcement for a 2021 release
Andrew Because we see they just dropped the automatic nav timer, didn't they?
Everett Uh, yes. Yeah.
Andrew So yeah. And that's, that's available currently. I think that's a really cool thing that they could grow some, that they could grow with and keep improving on that. Do another iteration of, of diving style watches that are still in that very vintage inspired, still in that very, uh, work hard bang around category. And I think that's where, where Timex is going to find their niche for, for,
Everett discerning watch buyers who want to be hard on their watch but don't want to wear a g-shock yeah yeah no i think i think that's right i would love to see a steel sort of middle of the road not high end but you know a 250 to 300 steel automatic expedition yep that's what i want to see i could go for that okay number five okay unisex watches i we what is a unisex watch We, 40 and 20, are predicting... Push in, too. That's right. That's right. A proliferation of watches marketed not at men necessarily, but specifically marketed at men and women. There is a sentiment, a sentiment from people who should be the best equipped to make that, to have this, to share this sentiment that watchmakers, big and small, are doing some things wrong with their marketing of the watches to the sexes. Oh, definitely. And I agree totally. But I think we're going to see more of a proliferation of watches that are not intended for a man, not intended for a woman. I think that means conservatively sized 37 to 39 millimeters, not adorned with flowers. uh roses rose gold rose gold diamonds um but watches that are meant for everybody now some of you are going to say this is not a problem and and maybe some of you in some ways are right because if the snk 809 has been marketed as a men's watch uh specifically it's probably by the people retailing that more than anything um but so so right is there anything sex-based in the SNK 809? Arguably, no. But I think that we're going to see more and more companies sort of being deliberate to say, this is a watch for a man or a woman.
Andrew I think women are a really untapped market in the watch world.
Everett And to the extent that companies are attempting to tap women, to the extent companies are attempting to tap into that market, they're doing so in these anachronistic 60s Mad Men style. Well look, this is a watch for women and you know because it's got diamonds on the bezel and flowers on the dial. And that is a mess. That is a silly thing to do in 2020.
Andrew I think I would like to see unisex marketed watches. I think for that there's got to be just a slight culture shift in women wearing watches uh because i i i have encountered this and this is purely anecdotal but several women in my life have asked about watches they should buy or watches that i would recommend because they i mean i guess i'm an authority on it i'm apparently i'm not related to what women should buy because i'll show them the snk i'll show them uh the Sun and Moon Petite from Orient. I'm like, no, those look like dude watches. But I guess I don't, maybe I'm an idiot. And I'm totally open to that, because I probably am an idiot. But I think there's more to do with the, what women perceive to be a feminine appearance of a watch, because there's so much, because dudes just typically wear watches. And maybe I'm just being an idiot right now. Like I said, I'm totally up for that idea. But even diminutive size 36, 37 watches tend to have an aesthetic that, at least in my life, women are not attracted to.
Everett And I will, at the risk of speaking for you, say neither one of us think that women need to change anything with regards to what they like or how they wear watches. That's not what you're saying. No. Right. Women don't need to change. The market needs to change. Yeah. But that is, you know, I think that these are probably symbiotic changes that could be happening. And I think that the brands can control this a lot. You know, what if when you, on your website, you put pictures of a man wearing a watch and a woman wearing the watch? say this is a watch for a man or a woman that this is a watch it's not a watch for anyone this is a watch this is a watch so that in and of itself i think would fix 90 of the problem concur um so but but yeah there's there's going to be some market differences between what the average woman likes and the average man likes and and so it's it's not unreasonable to recognize that but To be clear, we're not saying women need to change anything about what they like.
Andrew No, I concur. There is a Seiko watch that is, it's called a women's watch. It's got a mother of pearl dial. I think it's a 36. I absolutely love it. Right. I would, I would wear the shit out of that watch.
Everett I really like mother of pearl.
Andrew I don't know if I could pull it off, but it's such a cool dial material. Yeah. Uh, yeah. Okay. But I hope to see that. I hope to see that shift coming from the industry. So number six.
Everett Do me. More gold watches. Gold watches are going to be a larger percentage of the new releases in 2020 than they were in 2019, and even more than in 2018.
Andrew Gold is coming back. It is. And a lot of things that I don't like are coming back, unfortunately. And I have a coworker who said one of the things, and he's older, he's in his 50s, he said one of his favorite things. Does he have a mustache? But he said one of his favorite things about hipsters is that they're bringing back a lot of artisanal talents. Because hipsters do things like craft wood, and make instruments, and do leather work, and jewelry, and all kinds of handmade things. Hipsters also like gold watches. And I think watch companies are getting hip to that.
Everett Yeah.
Andrew And I think we're going to see, I think you're right. We're going to see a lot more gold releases, not exclusively gold releases. I think we're going to see watches that come out with a gold iteration. They're going to be a little bit more expensive. We know we saw it with the good speed and we see it with Laurier. And I think we're going to, I think you're a hundred percent right on that. We are going to see, start seeing some, some gold, uh, color ways coming out of watches. Yeah. Gold PBD. We're, we're, we're just going to see it. Uh, and that sucks. But we're going to see it.
Everett I don't think it sucks. I like it. But I know what you're saying. I know what you're saying.
Andrew I'm totally down with hipsters doing cool artisanal stuff, though.
Everett Just like that guy, Eric, from EA8.
Andrew Yeah, that guy.
Everett Total hipster.
Andrew Yeah. God. But he has a curly mustache, too. You know, I saw a hipster dad this summer at the park, and he was in a he was in like a shirt with like the sleeves cut off. And it was it was a Henley with the sleeves cut off and he had a leather vest on, but a nice thin leather vest.
Everett Yeah.
Andrew And he had a curled bees waxed up handlebar mustache and a little pointed goatee. And did he have a mullet? No, he had a man bun and he was wearing a gold Casio calculator watch.
Everett Fucking love it. I love it. You should have talked to him. Yeah, no. Hippies use the back door.
Andrew No, I didn't talk to that man.
Everett OK, so number seven. And this is a little bit more all encompassing. We are going to only talk about this for less than four minutes, but I suspect that this could have been the entire show. There's going to be a consolidation of the micro slash enthusiast watch brand, meaning there's going to be more authorized dealer relationships amongst the micro brands. There are going to be more of these fringe micro-brands, so the smaller micro-brands sort of closing up shop, and there are going to be fewer new micro-brands to fill those spots. We're going to see fewer of the micro-slash-enthusiast brands in 2020.
Andrew I disagree. I think we'll see more, and I think we see more fail. I think this is the year that we see more micros fail to launch than previous years. because it's so popular. I think you're right in saying that we're going to see fewer actually rise to the surface. We're going to see more try. Okay. So I don't disagree. I just, I think, I think we, I want to go a little bit deeper. We're going to see more attempts this year than we ever have, but we're going to see fewer succeed.
Everett One suggestion that was kicked to me, sort of ancillary to this prediction, is that 2020 will be the year that Kickstarter sort of fails as a model for watch brands. And I think that these ideas go hand in hand. I think that we'll see the market, us, I think we're going to see us less willing to adopt a newcomer. And I think there's a number of reasons for that. I think that as the luxury brand sort of loses its ubiquity, right? Right. Because the market still wants a Rolex. Right. Worn and Wound had a great article about, you know, predictions. It was Worn and Wound, right? I think it was a Blog to Watch. Oh, shoot. You're right. A Blog to Watch had a great article about sort of the, oh yeah, it was Ariel Adams from a Blog to Watch, wrote a great article about predictions on what 2020 holds for the watch industry. This is next level shit. We are doing sort of surface-y, item-specific predictions. Ariel is a different brain. This guy is plugged in. He knows market trends. And his article is insanely interesting. And so we got to give a shout out to him because some of our background material is sourced from that article. But, you know, he talks about this as the market sort of squeezes, which is happening right now, the luxury market in particular. folks become less interested in buying a watch for their personal enjoyment and more interested in buying a watch for recognition. And so in that environment, brands like Rolex do really well. And in turn, Rolex has done a thing, and Omega, not just Rolex, but Rolex, I think, is easy to make sort of a representative of the luxury watch world, right? And because they're the pinnacle.
Andrew That's right. In the eyes of every consumer, that's the pinnacle.
Everett Instead of making more watches to reach demand, they keep making the same amount of watches to the extent that their watch becomes a currency as opposed to a watch that's subject to the fluctuations of supply and demand. Their watch sort of sets the currency value, right? And whether that's intuitive or not, or whether that's a completely universally wise business model, doesn't really matter, because that's what they're doing, and they've done it very well. So with that, I think that we're going to see people doing a couple of things. And I think that one of those things, one of those things that's going to affect our world, when I say our world, the watches we think about, is that people are going to be less inclined to buy the new Traska or, you know, or maybe Traska is established, but you know, whoever's Traska in 2020, whoever's the 2018 version of Traska, I think people are going to be less inclined. What are you offering me that I can't get from Notice or Traska or a brand that is already got the capital to make the watches? Is shipping this right now?
Andrew Is making a strikingly similar watch? That's right, that I know has been produced and I can put my hands on already. They have ironed out their manufacturing issues, they have ironed out their supply chain issues, they have ironed out their customer service issues, and they're established. And I think we see that in most industries that are emerging. I think the last five years have been incredible for the watch industry because we've seen such an explosion of micro brands and boutique brands who've been able to come to market, produce high quality watches with the same caliber of movements you're getting out of a lot of luxury watches and have been able to deliver. We've seen a lot fail. I think now though, the ones that are established are here and they've kind of, they've set the foundation for this corner of the market and to break into it's going to be extremely difficult. We'll see some, Some thrive, though. We'll see a couple cool micros come up this year, but not many.
Everett And Kickstarter? I think it's going to fall away. At least fall out of prominence.
Andrew Watch companies are going to have to find a new way to establish and to develop capital for their venture. It's not viable anymore because there are so many options. I mean, if you look at Goodspeed And this isn't a knock on Goodspeed at all, because he's making really cool watches. Yeah. But you can get a comparable watch that's already in production.
Everett Right. It's going to be harder for guys like Jeremy at Goodspeed to jump in and convince you to buy that watch. To a certain extent, I think we've seen that happen with a brand like Atra, right? I think Atra had manufacturing issues. And at the end of the day, they decided to sort of delay or halt their process. But I think that some of that has to do with the watch world's reluctance to sign off on an $800 watch sight unseen, which is maybe fair, but it signals a dynamic shift.
Andrew I mean, look at Tesla. Tesla can now use, I mean, basically a Kickstarter model in their pre-order capital infusions, but they had to deliver first. Yeah. They had to give, they had to have capital upfront to push products to market and say, Hey, this is what you guys can have. Now give us the rest of the money. Yeah. And that's what they're doing. Yeah. And that's what we're going to have to see out of watch brands in the next, I mean forever now that's the, the, the Kickstarter crowdsource model is, is going to fall.
Everett So I think that that is, um, probably a good place to leave it. Obviously, there's going to be a hundred ideas that are adjacent or ancillary to these things that we've already discussed that are relevant. We've probably said some things that are just blatantly going to flop, but I think that from where we sit, this is what we see in this next year. What do you think we missed? What do you think we could have touched on? Because this could be a topic that we'd be willing to revisit, at least on a limited basis in the future. So if you have ideas, Andrew, any other predictions, any other hot takes that you want to drop before we shift?
Andrew I dropped them all.
Everett You dropped them. Like they were hot.
Andrew Like they were hot. I will mention the toxic lava. I had that the other day. The toxic wings. Yeah, I went to toxic wings the other day and the toxic lava. It was nearing closing time, so it was the bottom of the little dish.
Everett It was hot. This wasn't by any chance on December 30th or 31st.
Andrew No, it was not. It was just a couple of days after that. I was still a little bit tenuous, and I probably shouldn't have had toxic lava. That's fucking brave. Because that referred only to what it did at phase three.
Everett All right. So other things, we've got an exciting... I don't actually think this will be exciting for anybody. Not for most of you. But I think we're both anticipating this with glee and pleasure in our eyes. We're ready to duke it out. So, well, I guess this was just last week. It's been several weeks for us. But we, I... You. Everett, posited a theory or an idea. A very hot take. A hot take that A Knight's Tale was a severely underrated... No. flick. Okay, give it to me. What did I say?
Andrew You said it was the most underrated movie in the last 20 years. I think that that.
Everett Did I say that? Yes. All right. Well, yeah, I'll stand by that for the purposes of the pending conversation. And so we left with a mission to both watch.
Andrew You know what I'm going to say? First off, I'm really pissed off about the timing of your wild claim. Okay. Because it has been on Netflix for the last six months. It's not on Netflix currently, so I had to pay $3.99 to rent it from Amazon. You could have borrowed my Showtime login. Okay, I paid $3.99 to rent it from Amazon. Continue.
Everett All right, so apparently I said some shit, and now I have to defend that. So, we both watched it. You watched it.
Andrew I did, with the wife, as you requested. Okay, and I watched it with the family, just today actually. You did, I caught the end of it.
Everett Yeah, yeah. I will say, that there's some chance that at that time that I said that wild thing I said, there was some hyperbole in my cadence.
Andrew No. No.
Everett With that said, I watched it today and I still loved it.
Andrew I don't dislike the movie. But what I will say is it is not underrated in any way at all. It is It's a 2001 release. Heath Ledger as the leading man. Rest in peace. Rest in peace. I'm not going to pour any booze out on your floor, but you know, we got to pour one out for the homie.
Everett Yeah, this is a carpet, man.
Andrew So it'll soak it right up, bro. So for those of you who haven't seen it, it's worth watching. But when you sit down to watch this movie, what you see is a knight, a brave knight upon his steed, jousting his way into the history books on the cover. What you get is the last 90s heartthrob movie ever made. And it's so good for a 90s heartthrob movie. But it is, it has, it's not so good for a 90s heartthrob movie. It's just a 90s heartthrob movie, but they based it in medieval times and they took all the 90s things and they dropped it into the middle ages Europe. They included the sports thing, the love interest, the chasing of the beauty that he wanted, the weird outfits. The only thing this movie was missing was Smash Mouth in the soundtrack. I wanted that. And they're singing Queen in the Middle Ages in the stadium as these guys are jousting. There's the world tournament. This is a goofy movie. Like literally the movie, a goofy movie. in the Middle Ages starring Heath Ledger. But isn't it charming? Yes. Surprisingly charming? It is surprisingly charming. And in fairness, this is 2001. This is before decent period pieces. It was horribly anachronistic. Like painfully so. The acting is pretty good for a 90s heartthrob. Yeah. But this is a 90s teen movie. The cast is good. It is, everyone did, everyone played their part for a 90s teen movie that was set in the Middle Ages, but it's not, it is rated perfect for however it performs.
Everett It's got John Smith from the, oh, what's the name of the time traveling? A time traveler's wife? Nazi movie or Nazi show.
Andrew Oh, Uber Grubenfuhrer Smith. Yes.
Everett Man in the High Castle. Man in the High Castle. Uh, it's got Heath Ledger, rest in peace. It's got, I mean, it's just. It's got great actors. Really well executed. No, I disagree a hundred percent. I think it's really, I think it's deliberate, deliberately campy without any apologies, which I love. I love a deliberately campy movie without apologies, but it does so in a way that doesn't, you know, sometimes camp will take away And I think you're arguing that the camp takes away.
Andrew It was really distracting for me.
Everett I think that they, if, I think if that they had attempted to make it less campy, I think that they, if for even one second had been more serious than they were, it would have been stupid. But because they, they strike, they strike that balance between camp and genuine emotion.
Andrew I think they nailed it. I will say I do get goosebumps when I watch it. Yeah. But there's also, there's, there, there are so many just absolutely needless things in that movie. Why did Uber, Grubin, Fuhrer, Smith go to war during the, during the Lansing season?
Everett Because apparently. Because they needed conflict.
Andrew Because apparently there's jousting seasons and then he's at war, he's fighting, he's leading what the, uh, the free companies at war and he's, he's, he's reading the newspaper on how his jousting rival is doing back in Great Britain. Reading the sports pages. Yeah, that is just it.
Everett So, fair to say. The dual Nike symbol.
Andrew There are just so many weird things. That movie would have been just as good if he was playing soccer or skateboarding.
Everett No, certainly. Certainly, I agree with you there, right?
Andrew It would have been better if he was skateboarding.
Everett It reminds me of a couple movies. So I think that movie, I think you're right to say this is a culmination of the 90s heartthrob movie in a period piece. It reminds me of a couple things. One, elements of Leo, Kate, Romeo and Juliet. Yep. Elements of Cool Runnings.
Andrew Yep.
Everett You know, it's got this sort of simple, approachable, not overly serious Disney type movie with this sort of modern retro period piece thing. With all that said, I think unlike a number of movies from that period, right? Yeah. So I mean, go back and watch 10 Things I Hate About You. That's what it felt like I was watching. That movie sucks, and this one doesn't.
Andrew Okay. I don't disagree, but I sort of do.
Everett Everybody liked 10 Things I Hate About You. It doesn't age well. What I'm saying- It did not- I think 10 Things I Hate About You did not age well. I think this did. I don't- My kids asked me when it was made. Is this an old movie, or is this a new movie? Okay. They enjoyed it. My kids, my little kids enjoyed it.
Andrew Well, because it's a fun movie. It's got weird comedy. It's got really likable characters. The acting is really well done, but it was it's it's distracting.
Everett Yeah, there was one thing I found distracting is in the jousting scenes regularly. I think almost every single one of the jousting scenes that wasn't like just plugged into a montage one of the sides
Andrew starts 30 seconds before the other guy. It's like he's he's there.
Everett He's going to be other guy is thoughtfully anticipating his run and then he lowers his visor. Meanwhile, the other guy is halfway down. He's a clip. He's he is there. He's coming for you. That was distracting. I don't know why they made that.
Andrew That was there was just a lot of weird things. They didn't need that in the like the mysterious Prince. They didn't like he just kind of showed up and then was like, oh, yeah. Hey, by the way, you're a knight. It I don't know. There was a lot of a lot of plot holes, though it's an enjoyable movie. It is rated appropriately for how it is viewed.
Everett All right. Anything else you want to add before we wrap up for the day?
Andrew I couldn't handle her costumes, man. You can't give a middle a middle ages lady like gold face paint and and cleavage.
Everett All right. Well, with that, I guess we'll wrap. I think so. Oh, you muted me. I've muted Andrew. And so with that, I will just say that as for round one of the Everett Andrew battle, we agree that I've won round one. I guess so. Thank you for joining us for this episode of 40 and 20. Check us out on Instagram at 40 and 20. Tune in next week, because we're gonna have a fun, fun, fun, fun episode next week. Check us out on Patreon, patreon.com slash 40 and 20. Really, that's where we get our support We've got some ideas. We've been talking. We've been game planning. We've got some ideas. We've got a little bit of money and we have some plans. Stay tuned for more information on that as we move forward. Don't forget to tune back in next Thursday for another hour of watches, food, drinks, life, and other things we like.
Andrew Bye-bye.