Episode 218 - 2023 Predictions

Published on Wed, 28 Dec 2022 20:19:58 -0800

Synopsis

The podcast hosts, Andrew and Everett, discuss their experiences and reflections from the past year in the watch world. They talk about the major events like the Moonswatch release, the impact of the crypto crash on luxury watch prices, and share their personal journeys with acquiring new watches. Everett shares insights from launching his own watch brand, Foster Watches, and how it has changed his perspective on watch design and production. They also make predictions for the watch industry in 2023, including an increase in microbrand prices, more GMT and thin watches, and the potential for gold or two-tone offerings from microbrands. Additionally, they touch on other topics like cooking, baking sheets, and express gratitude to their listeners for supporting the show.

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Transcript

Speaker
Andrew	Hello, fellow watch lovers, nerds, enthusiasts, or however you identify. You're listening to 1420 The Watch Clicker podcast with your host, Andrew, and my good friend Everett. Here, we talk about watches, food, drinks, life, and other things we like. Everett, how are you?
Everett	So good, man. Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas, indeed. Yeah. No, man, I'm doing great. You know, the holidays are always a little crazy at work. People go on vacation. And so the ones that are back, are left to kind of pick up the slack, which is why you're in a law firm and not a solo. Um, you know, that's, that's the thing that, that you want. Um, it's me and our one, like nearing retirement of counsel in the office right now. And so he does not take other people's stuff. So four full-time attorneys, three of them gone, me left. I am a little busy, which is okay. It's good. We did a really good job on vacation memos and I kind of know what we're doing and that's fine, but it's just a lot. You know, I get to work and it's like, okay, here's this list of 75 things that I need to do today and I'll just chip away at them. But no, it's been really good. I had an opportunity to ski on Monday. Conditions were terrible, I believe it, but it was still a lot of fun. I've got really good skis for terrible conditions, which is nice. Um, yeah, so I am like, well, I can't complain. I can't complain. I'm getting old. I'm a little overweight. Other than that, I'm good. Andrew, how are you? You're not balding though. I am not balding. I have all my hair and my hair right now, I feel like is doing a thing. So yeah. Yeah. So hard to complain. Andrew, how are you?
Andrew	I'm good. I'm worn out from a very long, ongoing Christmas celebration. Sure. So my dad came down last Thursday. Yeah, we talked about it. Did we on the show?
Everett	Uh, no, no. You and I talked about it.
Andrew	Oh yeah, we did. Oh no, we, we did. We, uh, we were, it was last Wednesday. My dad was here. There we go. Yeah. So it was, we did talk about it on the show. So, so he came down Wednesday, but that began, that kicked off the, the festivities because then My wife's parents and her grandpa came down for Christmas Eve on Christmas Eve, and her parents stayed the night and into Christmas morning. And so we had Christmas morning with. Sam's parents and the kids were maniacs, as you'd expect, because Christmas morning and they are appropriate. Yeah, yeah, yeah, they ought to be. But then we piled into the car and we drove up to Portland, my sister's house. where there was just more Christmas day activities. So the kids were- More mayhem. Yeah, more mayhem. And then my, my nephew is 21 and gets along really well with both the kids.
Everett	So it was just this- The way you said that, I thought there was going to be something creepy. No, no, it gets along really well and he loves them.
Andrew	And he's, he's just, it's just chaos. Just this trail of like an adult running around being chased by two screaming children like they're, like they're freaking, uh, One of those pygmies, just blood and screaming. And then the following day, we went back up to Portland or at least the Portland metro for a follow on Christmas activities with Sam's grandma. So it just it made for a really extended celebration.
Everett	Yeah. Traveling back and forth to Portland is a pain in the ass.
Andrew	I hate it. It's a nightmare. It's the worst drive in these United States.
Everett	Well, that's objectively not true. Did you consider getting an Airbnb or something up there?
Andrew	We did, but then we'd have to board the dogs and we thought the value of all of us sleeping in our own beds would be... Would negate the two and a half hour drive. Yeah, would be worth it when we consider being back in the car for two and a half hours. Sure. But we did it. It was there. Everyone had a lot of fun. It was cool. I haven't had a Christmas off in a long time, so it was nice to actually see family all at once
Everett	Do you remember when Portland, Eugene used to be a two hour drive and how at some point it became two and a half hours and we just like rolled with it?
Andrew	We just accepted it. Yeah. Yeah. It's, it's two and a half hours.
Everett	If you go like in the middle of the night, you can do it too.
Andrew	If you go in the middle of the night, you can do it about an hour 45.
Everett	That's true. Yeah. Yeah, that's true. It, everything took less time when I was 20 and not just because there were fewer people. I think I was more prone to taking risks.
Unknown	Yeah.
Andrew	But now it's just that there's so much construction and traffic and you just you come to a full stop on the freeway at least four times. Doesn't matter if there's traffic or not, you just end up coming to a stop. So it just it. Yeah, it's just long and I'm tired, but I had a lot of fun and I'm glad to now be sitting here drinking beer with you and talking about watches.
Everett	Let's talk about watches, man, because we are today talking about watches, because this is a podcast that's dedicated to the discussion of watches. Yeah. And we have done it in five minutes and 46 seconds. So you're welcome. Including a jingle.
Andrew	They said it wasn't possible.
Unknown	Yeah.
Everett	Well, I'm still not convinced that it is.
Andrew	It's not. No, it's not possible.
Everett	Yeah. Andrew, you had asked me today to think about The year that was 2022, the year that is rapidly approaching its conclusion. We are in the 28th day.
Andrew	We're not.
Everett	We're in the 27th day of 2022. By the time folks are listening to this, it will be the 30, 29th day, the penultimate day of 2022. 30th day, that's penultimate. The 29th is not though. Oh, yeah, correct. Yeah. I don't know why I'm in trouble here. It's just math. It's hard. Yeah, that's right. Anyway, we're getting close to the end. Can we just say that? Will you agree with that?
Andrew	Yes, we are. The end is nigh.
Everett	So you had asked me to think about that year, about the things that had happened. We, of course, talked about kind of the year in Watches 2022, which is in like a a news sense, a 40 and 20 review of the watches and the things that happen. Uh, that's not what we're doing today.
Andrew	It is not.
Everett	What is it that we're doing today?
Andrew	Today? I always think of new year that the changing of the year as a time for reflection.
Everett	Sure.
Andrew	And a time for optimism.
Everett	A time to tell your family all the things you're thankful for, to make things up about how much you love them.
Andrew	Yes. We're not going to do that second part today. Okay. Um, do I, I love each and every one of you. I'm very thankful for you, Andrew. Uh, so I wanted to do an episode thinking about our watch experience of 2022. Sure. The things, the things that we did, the things that maybe changed in us, like how, how did we as watch people, not as podcasters, not as, as media, people change, but how do we change over 2022 and then take some time to talk about what we're looking forward to next year?
Everett	Sure. And it's been a big year for both of us in terms of our watch journey. It really has been. Would you like to start? Well, I'll tell you, I did a thing this year. I launched a watch brand. You did? I did. You may have heard of it. I'll tell you a lot has changed with that. Um, obviously I gained a ton of knowledge, a ton of knowledge about the sort of, um, boutique micro sort of behind the scenes making the sausage. Can I, can I say something real quick? Can I speak to the people real quick? Tell them, you know, here I am. I'm this guy. I started a watch brand. I know things about starting watch brand. Um, At least my experience, right? I'm not going to write a book anytime soon here.
Andrew	But you will see it in the 1420 store come March 1st.
Everett	That's right. But you know, I don't think, I think that there is a shroud of mystery that's been placed over the, some of the things we're doing and I don't really get it. The shroud or at least the placement of it in any event. And I am happy to talk about these things. I don't know what questions people might have. And I assume nobody's writing lists of questions they have, but if you guys ever have questions, you want to know about something, I'm happy to provide any information I have about that. Because honestly, I just don't think that there's no, the secrecy is weird to me.
Andrew	And in our experience with other brand owners, everyone's pretty willing to be open and honest and almost entirely transparent. I think that lack of transparent, the only hesitance that people have about transparency is they don't exactly want to talk numbers, which is pretty reasonable.
Everett	Yeah. You know, I'm even okay with that. Look, so, so all that to say, all that to say, um, one of the things that we would like to do with foster, um, meaning Christian and I, that, that we is, is to just tell people that the answer is like, if you want to know how much my fucking hands cost and where I get them made to the extent I know where we get them made, I'll tell you. right? I'll tell you how much they cost. I know how I know how much they cost. You know, and not that I think anybody's staying up at night thinking how much did ever pay for those brand new black painted hands on the what soon to be released white dial 11 atmo skin diver coming soon to a story to you. But how much did I pay for that stuff? I can tell you, we would tell you
Andrew	Are you going to put a bill of materials on your website?
Everett	No, no, probably not. But that's maybe the point, right? I think that there are some mysteries in this industry that people maintain just because it feels like that's the mystery that we maintain, right?
Andrew	I think part of it is that people feel uncomfortable making money. Yeah. People get shitty about you making money. True. That's the numbers thing that makes people hesitant to talk about it.
Everett	But you know, you and I, you and I were really, Mike France has said this, not just on our show, but on other shows and in interviews, you know, we're a three to one company. We make three times our cost on each sale. Right? So 60% of their 60% of their sale price is profit. And I think those are, those are good numbers. Those are really, you know, that's competitive, uh, profit. You know, you should expect that.
Andrew	Well, it's not exactly profit. It keeps the lights off.
Everett	Well, yeah. I mean, that's what it is. It's meant to pay people, right? It's a profit. We're going to be able to put this in R&D. We're going to be able to allocate our profit. We don't have to pay... Build a Belcanto. That's right. That's right. So, you know, to get back on track, you know, I'll finish up the thought. Just ask us. We're going to not uphold mystery for the sake of mystery. I'm happy to answer questions. Now, back to 40 and 20, back to our show. I've learned all this stuff firsthand. You know, what's the hardest thing about making a watch? Probably designing the box. You know, these kinds of things, like I've learned things about this industry that people don't really think about, that I didn't really think about, that don't really matter, that I don't care about. And so that has changed the way I approach watches a little bit, right? It's changed the way that I think about good watch design. It's changed the way that I want to interact with my watches. You know, talking to Richard from Studio Underdog, I have so much appreciation for what that guy is doing, because he's approaching his business in a much different way than I approach my business. Not much different, but certainly different. And I like that. I don't like that because he did it differently or better or whatever. I like it because I can see what he did. And I'm like, that's a cool thing to do. I'm not taking shots at anybody, but we don't see that all the time. We don't see people coming at watches in a way that is like, aha, you did a thing there. And I appreciate that thing you did.
Andrew	Um, I think we do. I think it just often, it doesn't land as well as that all the time. Well, of course, a lot of people out there taking risks. And a lot of them don't play well.
Everett	That's right. Well, and also there's just, I think we see a lot of brands where we, you know, you kind of don't see that stuff too. So not a lot, I'm not putting numbers on it, but I am able to interact. So personally where I've come, yeah, has a lot to do with that. Another thing has happened, which is that I launched a watch brand and I am morally obligated to wear my watch. All of the time. I mean, really all of the time. I, I, and I'm not morally obligated. A, I want to wear my watch. I love my watch, but God forbid, Kim sees you not wearing it. Oh, no, not Kim, but God forbid I run into someone and they're like, Everett, I haven't seen you. Where's your watch or, or, or whatever. Right. I mean, I wear, I wear my watch all the time and, and I can wear other watches. I have choices to be made, but Um, yeah, I'm wearing my watch. So now I've got 30, 30 plus, 30 plus watches just sitting on my nightstand, uh, or sitting on my dresser in their boxes and haven't been touched in, you know, going on 45 days at this point.
Andrew	Not even the reef, huh?
Everett	Yeah. Yeah. Look, I do not wear other watches, at least right now I'm wearing the foster and that's it. And so Yeah. I've got to think about that. Is there, is there call for me to consolidate here?
Andrew	I don't know. I don't know. I've been thinking about consolidation too. I wonder if that like, I mean with the, I had a similar consolidating thought this, this last, in the last couple of weeks. Like I don't, I bought all these watches for a reason and I haven't sold any of them for a reason. Some of them for a couple of reasons. But I still love all these watches. But I don't know that they're still bringing me joy by just sitting in my watch box.
Unknown	Right.
Andrew	And I feel weird about having so many watches that I don't wear. Right. And just have no intention of it. My eyes never go there in the watch box. It's even got eyeball dust like it's It's just not there. It's not being engaged with. I'm honest. I like that. But that was I mean, I got to the similar point this year for, you know, very different reasons. But thinking about paring down and getting down to the, you know, four or five. So. But also why? I'm OK with having those. It's a conflict. I'll keep working on it. Tell us about your year, Andrew. So my year, I made a couple important acquisitions. Yeah, you did. Early in the year, I got a Traska commuter. And that was it for me. I realized, oh, this is the size. 36 is my space. I love small watches. And I had on the horizon new that it was going to be a Santos acquisition year. And I spent the year very deliberately planning for that acquisition and finally made it. And I got this watch and I love this watch. I'm not wearing it today because I wanted to wear my 36. But I was also doing some stuff that I didn't want to wear the Santos doing your scratch magnet Santos. Yeah. Scratch and fingerprint magnet. It's not scratched yet. I did think I got a scratch on the clasp of the commuter, but I was wrong. It's just a smudge. This thing is bulletproof. This thing's great. But that that was my I don't I don't think I don't think there's anything else random in there for my year of acquisitions. And, you know, the year prior, I tried to be really, really diligent in. Not exactly fascinating. Some acquisitions were made.
Unknown	Yeah.
Andrew	But slowing down my purchasing my, my got to catch them all kind of butterfly catcher mentality and working towards refining what it is I was looking for, why I was looking for it, what I wanted. And, and within that, what's the best thing that I can get that fits that need. And for the Santos, it was, that's just the watch that I want that there was no particular need. that that watch was going to feel. It's not, I mean, it's a tool watch. You can wear it like a tool watch, but that's just because I love that fucking watch.
Everett	You don't want it because it's not going to be for you and that's okay.
Andrew	It's just not going to be, it doesn't have loom. It's also a fingerprint magnet, but it's amazing. I love it. That was reason enough for me. And I think my next year I'm going to try to plan out like what, where are my goals for what kind of watches do I want and why do I want them? Try to really refine that decision making process.
Everett	Is it okay if I ask you some questions about your year? Because I think you've had an interesting, I think you've interacted with watches differently this year than you have in prior years. You know, I think specifically about Windup, going to a watch event, I know that has been big for me in the way I look at watches. Going to watch events and meeting owners and you know, getting in a room with all these ideas and creations. Um, has that affected you? Do you think? And, and, and if so, what do you take from that?
Andrew	I think the, the biggest effect that's had on me is, is the exposure to the variety, the exposure to the things we're going to wind up. One of the best parts is getting to put all these watches on your wrist and be like, Oh, okay. Okay. I see it. I see why this is as good as people say it is. or this is way better than I expected it to be, which maybe just means I like all watches in person. Yeah. Um, it turns out I like watches. So, so maybe I should just be an online shopper only. Um, but what I found at windup and even at, um, watch time was an appreciation for like, Oh, this is really fucking cool, but I don't need to have it. I'm not excited about it as cool as it is. I'm excited for, how cool it is. I'm excited for other people to have it, but I'm comfortable saying this isn't for me and not in a disparaging way. Cause it used to be, I felt like if I said I, cause it's not, I don't like it, but I have, I've recently come to grips with the fact that it's okay to like something and not want it.
Unknown	Yeah.
Andrew	Yeah. Right. And that's, that's a big corner for me. Cause it used to be like, I like it. I want it. I'm going to have it. I'm not going to wear it, but I want it because I like it.
Unknown	Yeah.
Andrew	So divorcing those ideas of liking something and wanting something was wind up was really helpful with that, that final nail in the casket of loving something, but not wanting to have it.
Everett	You know, we see people deal with that, that realization in a lot of different ways. You know, you hear a lot about the, one-in-one-out mentality or whatever. It seems to be like a common refrain amongst watch people, this realization that I don't need to have them all. I don't need to have all of them, certainly not all at once. And I think that that is a true thing that you've pointed out. idea that I can see something, I can appreciate it, I can enjoy it, and also I don't need to own it.
Andrew	Or even particularly want to own it. That's right.
Everett	There are, there have been moments for me in the last handful of years where I tried to justify a purchase. Well, you know, I need this because it fills this hole or whatever, or I need this, but if I need this, then I don't need this anymore or whatever. And frankly, at the end of the day, being able to enjoy watches without pissing away your life savings is a meaningful step in the watch appreciation journey. And so, yeah, it'll be interesting to see where you go in the future. Buying a Santos is a financially big decision and it will affect future decisions you make, right?
Andrew	Do I emotional threshold for a dollar sign just went way the fuck up.
Everett	That's true. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. You know, and you bought the Santos with earned and saved money. You didn't get hit by a car. True. You didn't.
Andrew	I spent a long time. I planned for it for 18 months. Yeah. Very diligently planned for it. Had some road road, not roadblocks, speed bumps along the way. Slowed the process down a little bit. But got there in with really good timing.
Unknown	Yeah.
Andrew	Yeah. I'll tell you though, the, um, the fears archival 1930 call your name. It, it was a speed bump. When I put it on, I was like, Oh no. Yeah. Obviously I didn't purchase it. It's also not quite right. It feels a very different space and it didn't have that, that Dope bracelet.
Unknown	Yeah.
Everett	Yeah. Well, I'll tell you, um, I'm excited for this next year. I'm excited to see what you do. I'm excited to see what I do. I will tell you, I was looking at, again, I'm going to talk about Foster just for another second. I was deep in the weeds in this last week and a half, two weeks on tech drawings for a field watch. And changing. Using CAD, are you still doing? No, we're not using CAD, but but we're looking at CAD drawings that someone else has made and changing the post height to get total dimensions down. And yeah, look, man, this it's really cool. The the the the process is really cool, like fighting for a half a millimeter on a watch. You know, it's cool.
Andrew	It's, it's, I think it'd be, as I'm understanding the things that you've talked about in your, your year, it sounds like you have gained an appreciation for the, um, the actual industrial design kind of watch in a way that I think most people will never fully understand.
Everett	Yeah. I do think that it is a little bit like, um, building a cabinet or whatever. Right. You might watch a YouTube video. Um, you, you might sort of at a distance kind of understand how it's put together, but until you actually buy the lumber and screw the screws in the pocket holes, you don't really know what it's like to do that, to make those decisions. Right. And so having had that experience does make me appreciate the industrial design. You know, at one point talking to our manufacturer today, I said, I had selected a movement, a different movement. And I said, would this movement get us to where we want to be? And they had said, I don't think it makes a difference. And I said, well, let's talk about it and let's keep it in the back of our heads. And we wound up using that movement. And so I said, today, today in a text message, I said, does this actually make me watch designer? Because I feel like I need to order a new name tag. Um, so I'm just asking, uh, asking the questions, you know, but, but really like being able to understand the dimensions and, um, you know, understanding how the different components affect different things does totally change the way I think about it. Um, and, and it's exciting and it's fun it will change the way I buy watches. I guarantee it will change the way I buy watches. I'm going to see things that 95% of consumers will never see because I've been involved in those processes. So I am going to never, never, um, fail to appreciate those things when it's done really well. I mean, sometimes you don't have to think about that and people don't have to think about that. And so it's not a negative. But when people do think about that stuff, man, I'm, it's going to really tickle that funny bone.
Andrew	Uh, it's the little things, right? Yeah. If you get the little things right, the big things inevitably will fall in place.
Everett	I think that's right.
Andrew	And the whole time you were talking about that, I was just imagining this like group of old men at a woodworking convention, admiring the dovetails on a chest and you, you don't appreciate a dovetail until you cut one.
Everett	Yeah, that's right.
Andrew	And that's, that's it. You've, you've cut the dovetail and you have this whole new appreciation for what went into it and see, see that person's passion, that person's intuition, that person's hard work represented in the final product.
Everett	And in my metaphor, I said pocket holes, which, which gives you some insight into the way I approach these things. But yes, that's absolutely right, Andrew.
Andrew	Yeah. Anything else? Any, any other big stuff for, for this year? I mean, I don't, I don't remember setting, I mean, I, my goal, air quote goal for this year, I had some acquisitions that I wanted to make and I made one of them and I'm so pleased by it. But that was, I just kind of like went into the year, just turn the corner. It's like, this is my, my purchase list. What are you, Do you have a plan for next year? Are you going to make a plan for next year or are you just going to keep riding the foster wave?
Everett	Yeah, well, I'll tell you, it's not like I'm not going to appreciate other watches. And so I think for me, it's figuring out what it is I really want, figuring out the things I enjoy and being diligent, being deliberate about those decisions. More of the same, frankly, if you know me or if we've ever talked about how I buy watches or if you've ever heard an episode of the show when we've talked about that, That's not a change. It's just going to be more refined. It's going to be more refined. It's going to be more deliberate. And that's it. Are there any watches I'm looking at right now? I don't think so, but I know what it is I want. Frankly, I think I'm probably in a place where I'm going to be looking at things like the Formex. I'm going to be looking at things like Manta. Brands where really cagey, sexy decisions have been made with really difficult objectives in mind and that have, by and large, achieved those things. It's hard to say right now that this is what I want to buy, but I'm going to be looking at those things in new releases like, oh, my gosh, they did. You know, I didn't get in on that Yema micro rotor Kickstarter and for a number of reasons. One of those was just the cost. I think that's a cool thing. And I'm kind of here for it. Things like that, you know. Yeah. Yeah. You know, Andrew, it occurs to me that we are at a really good place to transition to what we expect for next year. We talked about some predictions.
Andrew	I don't know if we have to make... We're all about the hot takes here. We could rename our podcasts to 40 hot takes.
Everett	20 bad decisions.
Andrew	And 20-somethings.
Everett	I think that there is an opportunity here to reflect a little bit more comprehensively on the year that was watches. We've already done that sort of watch by watch in the things that made sense to us. And so to recap, we had a couple of very big things that happened in watches. You know, the
Andrew	Moonswatch, I think probably being the most sort of... Yeah, I think the biggest splash of the year because it represented something so different to really anything else that was out there, right? It was Swatch invicting itself.
Everett	And you know, I've heard projections that they're going to wind up selling half a million of those by year's end, which is a Fuck a ton of watches. If you don't know now, you know, that's a lot.
Andrew	That's a lot of fucking watches and they're selling it in brick and mortars. That's what they're counting those sales against. They're not counting them against online sales. They're selling them to a fucking person.
Everett	Half a million watches in a year in three quarters of a year. That's incredible. I think another thing that happened that we didn't talk about, maybe we've mentioned it a few times. The other thing that happened is the crypto crash.
Unknown	Yeah.
Everett	We've seen, and when I say the crypto crash, I don't mean just the crypto crash. There's a lot of things that were wrapped in.
Andrew	A lot of things wrapped up into the crypto world.
Everett	There has been a tightening up of money. You know, for a while we were talking about lowering interest rates again or halting the increased interest rates. We don't know exactly what's going to happen with all of that as we move forward. Gold is doing well. We've got a whole bunch of stuff happening at very high echelons of the economy that people haven't really tracked down. Crypto is totally fucked, probably irreparably so. We're seeing a lot of people that were moving a lot of money in the last three to five years having to tighten their belt straps. And that's having an effect on watches. It's having a huge effect on watch straps. Excuse me. You gave me that look. And so we're seeing things that don't seem like they affect us. Things like the price of the Daytona is, you know, down 50% from its high.
Andrew	Which is still up, you know. Right.
Everett	But the investment economy for luxury goods is less, uh, you know, there's less demand there.
Andrew	And here's part of the thing with the crypto crash, the crypto crash or crypto in general was driven by in large part, bros, like people pouring a ton of money into this cool, hot thing. And those same people were buying up luxury goods. They were buying up Rolex and they started driving. That's why, you know, we see crypto blowing up five years ago. which is when the secondary market for Rolex started blowing up because suddenly this dude who woke up in his dorm room with nothing had a million dollars in his crypto account. And I think with, with the crypto bottom falling out, and I think you're right when you say irreparably, I don't think there's any bounce back from this because people have been seeing for the last year how volatile that market was. And now all the money that was actually in it, Turns out it's gone. I think we're going to see stabilization and, and, well, no, it's going to be a, not a flop. It's not, bottom's not going to fall out of secondary price luxury watches the same way did crypto, but it's going to come down. We're going to start seeing, you know, 20, 30% over MSRP. I think maybe not next year, but over the next three years, we're going to see reasonable Rolex prices again, because two years ago you could buy a used 36 Explorer, box and papers for $8,000. Now you're looking at like $11,000 to $12,000. We're going to get back down to that price point. And I think they're probably going to sink a little bit below that and stabilize.
Everett	And so with all that, because what does it have to do with us, right? We don't talk about those watches. We don't care about those watches. We don't buy those watches. What does that have to do with us? I think it probably only minimally affects anything. what you're going to see is consolidation of power in the major players, which is going to in turn, make it harder to be a bit player in that high end or the high grade and probably affecting the mid grade as well. So we're talking about, you know, certainly, uh, Tag Heuer, we're talking about, you know, this, this three to $5,000 watch the, it's going to affect demand for those watches. It's going to affect those companies ability to be able to sell watches. If I can get, if I can just get the sub, why the fuck am I going to get the Gorisakwas that I didn't really want anyway. Okay. So these are decisions that are going to be made as watches free up and that's going to affect everything. Now, How does it affect, for instance, microbrands? I think very minimally, but things will be affected and we're going to have to see how that plays out. So all of that being context, all of that being context for my first prediction, which is going to be counterintuitive.
Unknown	Okay.
Everett	Microbrand watches are going to get more expensive in 2023. Period. Hard stop. micro-brand watches will be more expensive than 2023. I think we're looking at a 15% increase to hit the consumers.
Andrew	Is this a Foster announcement?
Everett	In 2023? No, it's not. Okay. Although, although Foster's prices will go up, part of that is because Foster has artificially low prices right now.
Andrew	Like all other micro-brands. Correct. Correct. The small brand industry shot itself in the foot from go trying to compete with the other, you know, with the SKX with $180 watch. Yes. Trying to compete with the SNK, trying to compete with Seiko. And you're like, well, we can, we can get by with this margin. Correct. But that's not the, that's not the cost of the watch you were making. Correct. That's not the value of the watch you were making. And then all of these other brands started popping up and matching prices. It's like, well, they're doing it. This is our competitor. We have to match prices.
Everett	And materials are more expensive. Look, manufacturing is more expensive. So if your watch brand of choice has not changed prices since 2017 or 2018 when they came out.
Andrew	Buy it now.
Everett	They are making less money and those prices will go up across the board. 15% is my guess for 2023. And they ought to. They ought to. Everybody's going to be more expensive.
Andrew	Brand owners deserve to be making a paycheck. This isn't an altruistic endeavor. They're not just making it so that you can have something cool available to buy. It's their business. It's their livelihood. They deserve to make a paycheck.
Unknown	Yeah.
Andrew	So pay them their money if you like their thing. That's right.
Everett	And that's going to be an effect that is going to, that is going to make it harder to sell watches. So brands like, Foster are all of a sudden, it's going to be harder to compete. The players are the players and they're going to play and everybody else is going to have to fight harder because everything's going to be more expensive. Fewer people are going to be able to afford them or at least believe they're going to be able to afford them, believe that they can afford them. And so we're going to see a consolidation within the micro brands too. Companies are going to go away. Prices are going to go up. It is going to be harder. That's my prediction.
Andrew	Do you think with that? Because I don't think I think you're right. In that we'll see prices increase. The consumer is still there. Sure. And people are still going to be spending their money.
Unknown	Sure.
Andrew	And I don't know if I'm on board with seeing more brands go away than usual. I think we'll see the normal attrition and replacement rate.
Everett	Hard to say. There are, I think, probably 50% more micro-brands right now than there were a year from now. A year than there was a year ago.
Andrew	And so... Because the brands that are popping up and actually surviving are good. It's not just a Kickstarter show-up make a watch and then go out of business because they didn't charge enough or they don't deliver on goods. We're seeing, we're seeing viable brands come to market.
Everett	Logic would suggest that with a steady increase of new options, uh, that competition will get more intense and that the attrition rate will go up. So that is a prediction. That is my prediction. Prices will go up. The attrition rate will go up. it will be harder to stay alive as a micro brand in the coming years.
Unknown	Okay.
Andrew	I want to hear my hot take for 2023. Let's do it. Timex is going to be doing some shit. Yeah, I like it. That's more, it's less a prediction than a hope. I don't, I don't have a whole lot of predictions for, for 2023. I have a lot of hopes. This was a good year for Timex and I hope
Everett	Even if they just released the Expedition North, this would be a big idea for Timex.
Andrew	I hope they continue to drill down on their tapping into the watch enthusiast world. It's clear that they see that it's a viable market with plenty of consumers. They're dropping stuff that appeals to watch enthusiasts and non watch enthusiasts, because that's really what you need to survive. because we don't keep brands afloat unless the brand is producing 100 watches a year. And I'm excited to see what they have in the works. They have a cool catalog. They got a lot to work with. That's what I'm excited for. I'm excited to see brands like Timex. There's no brand like Timex. Big brands. There's no brand like Timex, but big brands connecting to the watch enthusiast world in a way that they haven't in the past. There's some cool stuff in the pipe.
Everett	I've got some more predictions. Do it. I got a list. Oh geez. I'll just, no, I'll go one at a time. I think we're going to see a bunch of watches with the Miota 9075 and or not and or the TMI NH34. we're going to see a bunch of watches using those two movements.
Andrew	We're going to see a lot of the Seiko GMT this year too. That's the, is that TMI?
Everett	That's TMI. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, two very different, two similar movements in a lot of ways, right? These are affordable GMT automatics.
Andrew	The 9075? Yeah.
Everett	Oh, I didn't know that. Yeah. That's Miyota's. That's Miyota's.
Unknown	Oh it is.
Everett	Yeah. So, so, so, you know, one of those is a true GMT, blah, blah, blah, whatever, who cares? Um, the NH 34 is interesting because it is a, I think millimeter to millimeter drop in for an NH 30, uh, NH 35. So you, you need a GMT hand obviously, and you need a dial that can accommodate a GMT, but that's it. So if you've got an NH35 watch, you can put an NH34 in it.
Andrew	And have a ghost GMT function.
Everett	I'll have an actual GMT function. That takes a big mod. It does not. It is a millimeter to millimeter drop in.
Andrew	Yeah, but on your on your your hand placement is going to be. It's possible if you don't have any applied indices because you need that clearance for your GMT hand.
Everett	So that's what I'm saying. For these brands, so the post height is the same. So it is merely a movement and a dial. So any NH35 watch that's come out in the last, well, any time ever can replace that movement with an NH34. You're right. There may be crystal clearance issues and you'd need to have a dial that worked with, but dials are cheap. We're gonna see a bunch of those. We're gonna see a bunch of Miyota GMTs. There's gonna be a lot of that shit. Big companies can not yet, Miyota can't make these watches. They can't make 2,000, 3,000, 4,000 of these movements and sell them, but they can sell 150, 200 of them. So if you're a brand and you want 200 of these things, you're gonna be able to get them.
Andrew	It's a cool year for GMTs.
Everett	It's going to be, you know, it's been the year of the GMT now for three years.
Andrew	And so what has been and, and, and we're, we're finally, the technology is finally caught up to the desire. Yeah. Jack Mason dropping a GMT. What the fuck?
Everett	Yeah. That's a good one.
Unknown	Yeah.
Everett	It's well, Jack Mason, welcome to the party. Uh, you, you made a good watch.
Andrew	Yeah. And we have a, we have, Oh shoot. What was the name of the brand?
Everett	Um, uh, I remember where they were at.
Andrew	I remember exactly where they were.
Everett	They have. Okay. Stop thinking about what come to you.
Andrew	His debut watch is a GMT. I mean, that's, that's some next level stuff next.
Everett	And this is a big maybe, but I think it could happen. gold and or two tone micro brands. And when I say gold, I mean 18 karat gold. So listen, the cost of gold is about 60 bucks right now per gram. You've got about $1,500 of gold to make a case and case back. You don't need to do gold on the case back, but case case back bezel, you've got about $1,500 to $2,000 in raw materials. So let's say a company like Fears, a company like Farer, a company like Oak and Oscar. There are a handful of companies that I think could get away with this. And it's a $2,000 more. This is the same watch plus 2,000 plus, you know, whatever, 3,000, 4,000, but, but really what we're looking at is probably if the watch costs a thousand bucks, maybe a $5,000 watch made in 18 karat gold for a watch head. Obviously we start talking about bracelets. We're looking at like $5,000 of material. Um, and then you're a lot more and then you're at like 10,000, $11,000 once you, once you actually get it in people's hands. But
Andrew	Unless they're plating it. I mean, you can plate it for less.
Everett	And plating is an option. I think generally people are disinclined to appreciate plating, but that could happen.
Andrew	I think a brand like Fierce could really get away with plating because of that feel, that era that they're making watches from. A gold-plated watch would be super appropriate from their catalog.
Everett	I also think two tones of possibility. I'm not sure this is going to happen this year, but I think we're going to see folks start dipping their toes in this pool because people need to stand out. The market's there. The money's there. I think we're going to see it happen.
Andrew	You know, I think we're going to see some of this year. Tell me some overbuilt tool watches coming from brands that we know and love.
Everett	Interesting.
Andrew	We're here living in the 36 millimeter golden era. which leaves an enormous void that previously micro brands were filling almost entirely in that 40 to 44 tool watch zone. That is still a very viable market. It is still a place where people buy and like watches. And I think a lot of the brands that we have in existence that have some design ass, they've got some, they've got a good amount of experience under their belt. See that void in the market. and are going to take the opportunity to see that challenge and meet it. I think we're going to see some cool stuff in that space.
Everett	You know, some have never gone away. Look at Steve from Raven.
Andrew	Yeah. Yeah, exactly. He never stopped. He's still doing that cool big shit and he's still selling his watches. I think we're going to see cool brands say, look, this is a space that we want to work in. We haven't perfected the 36 millimeter field watch. We don't want to perfect it. We just want to do it well. Let's look at this space and let's try it. Let's try something new. Cause that's been something that we've seen in micro brands. This is a thing we want to do. Let's do it and let's do it well. How far can we go in innovating and trying new things? And I think we're going to see that space this year where some micro brands start working. I don't think the trend is necessarily going to go that way. No, I don't think we're ever going to go back up to 44, 45 as the, as the standard. 36 is here to stay, but we're going to see some cool tool watches this year, I think.
Everett	Final one for me.
Andrew	Do it.
Everett	Thin watches. I think we're going to see more thin watches this year. I think people are going to start aiming for sub 11, sub 10. We're going to see thin watches be the name of the game this year. I think mechanical movements, I think people are already playing around with micro rotors where we're seeing it. Thin movements are going to thin watches are going to be the name of the game.
Andrew	The problem is that micro rotors are almost prohibitive in their cost.
Everett	It's hard to, or, or their menu or their quality, right?
Andrew	Well, yeah, you get what you pay for.
Everett	They either suck or they're super expensive or you have to make one, develop it yourself and sell them on a fucking Kickstarter. Yeah.
Andrew	So choose your path wisely. Yeah. Yeah. I'd like to see a lot more work put into the micro rotor cause it's such a cool fucking thing.
Everett	Yeah. It's happening. Yeah. I think we, I think we see that. I think we see that happening this year.
Andrew	Yeah. We certainly will. Well, I think we'll see it proliferate in probably three to four years. There'll be a couple of reliable ones out there that are affordable that can exist in this space. I mean one movement, but there'll be three or four out there that are reliable and they'll be stratified across the, The price segments.
Everett	Anything else, Andrew? Hmm.
Andrew	I also hope that Easter colors are over. I love colors. I love new colors and different colors. I hope next year is not a pastel year again. There was too many pastels. It's another hope.
Everett	2022, what a year. 2023, what a year it will be.
Andrew	Yes, there is some cool stuff coming. I'm sure of it.
Everett	Andrew, my friend. For the last time in 2022, other things, what do you got?
Andrew	Oh, I got another thing for you. There's a company called Spiceology, S-P-I-C-E-O-L-O-G-Y, just how you think it'd be spelled. And as you guys know, I'm someone who cooks a lot. I like trying new things. like trying different things. And this is a brand I've been familiar with and haven't ever. Gotten with. Not because I have any issues with it, I just typically make my own spice blends. Sure, it's just like that's just it's good enough now. Spice blends I make are always good. But what I found is that when you buy a spice blend, When I buy a spice blend, it is inevitably better than anything I made. I have no reason for why. I can look at the ingredient list, try to recreate it, and it doesn't work. I just don't know why. Sure. So I got this pack of Spiceology blends for Christmas, and I immediately just opened every single one and tasted them all. I was immediately a little mad. It's like, number one, why haven't I been using this all along? They're not single use, right? It's not like this must go in this dish only, but they're a single flavor profile, which matches and fits with certain things. So they'll last you a long time because you're not going to need black magic Cajun blackening seasoning for scrambled eggs, right? Or for, you know, take your pick of things. I mean, maybe it's worth a try. We'll give we'll give it a go. They're also good. They're they're not cheap. They're 15 bucks per. This is a four ounce jar. Four point three ounce jar of spice mixture, but they're all really good and they have dozens of varieties. They've got a blackberry balsamic cowgirl crust, espresso, chili rub.
Everett	Cowgirl crust.
Andrew	This cowboy actually, but there was a pink below it. So I read cowgirl. That was weird. What just happened? I think my brain broke. Greek freak meant Mediterranean seasoning, which is really killer. Hibiscus habanero. Korean barbecue and Korean barbecue seasoning is super, super hard for me to get the proportions right when I'm making any any kind of Korean flavor profile. Yeah. Fair. Nashville hot chicken seasoning. All of it. They've got all these different things. And like you said, they're a little spendy. But if you're somebody who likes to cook and they also have like sugar free, they have no salt. They have brining spices. They've got a huge selection of different spices, spice mixes. And I'm for it. They're kind of big. They take up a lot of spice or a lot of space in my spice drawer. But that's just that's my cross to bear. But these are cool and they're really good. They're not cheap, nor are they prohibitively expensive. And they last a long time because you shouldn't be using, you know. Tablespoons of these and most of the things that you're cooking. Yeah, sure. You don't need that. No, no, this isn't like a brine mixture. except for their brining spices, which is different. Yeah. This is, this is my other thing. I, you know, there are other brands out there like this. You know, I think of grill your ass off who have an enormous, not enormous, but they have a large selection of spice mixtures and I have thoroughly enjoyed using theirs instead of mine because number one is cleaner and it just, they just taste better than when I make them.
Everett	I think, um, spices are hard for me. There is a small handful of spices that I feel comfortable with. And beyond that, I struggle with understanding what a spice is going to do. So I, I appreciate having the opportunity to play with spices in a way like that. I think I'm a little reluctant to use blends though. I think I'm just reluctant to use blends.
Andrew	I have been too.
Everett	Yeah, but you do it, you do it and you do it well.
Andrew	Like to use other people's blends or my own?
Everett	Oh, I think probably both things are true. The spice blends that I have in my cupboard are like 60% from recommendations that you've made.
Andrew	Well, yeah, so this spice blend, you need to blend spices. Yeah, sure. You can't have just oregano spaghetti. I sure can't. You shouldn't. You shouldn't.
Everett	Andrew, I've got another thing. Do me. I may have talked about this on the show. Have I talked about silpats on the show?
Andrew	I talked about mpacks. Yeah. And you were like, you're talking about counterfeit silpats. And I was like, no, but yes.
Everett	Yeah. So, okay.
Andrew	Which are holding up really well. They're a little bit stained. They're holding up great.
Everett	So I was looking for silpats. And I could not find them. The counterfeit market for Silpats has made it incredibly difficult to get good Silpats.
Andrew	Because there's a huge counterfeit market.
Everett	You can on Amazon, on Amazon proper, buy counterfeit Silpats that say Silpat.
Andrew	Yep. That's how good Silpat are and how good the counterfeits are.
Everett	I don't even think they're that good. When you go and click on the link, it says these are counterfeit, do not buy in the reviews. I don't understand it.
Andrew	Anyway. When I read, when I was reading about the ones that I was buying, um, they were like, just buy Silpat. I was like, yeah, but those are twice expensive. And also the only way to reliably buy Silpat is in a store in person.
Everett	I don't want, I don't mind the car. I think that's right, Andrew. That's it. Yeah. You've got to go to a store in person. I don't mind the money that you have to spend on real Silpats. I don't mind generic non-Silpat Silpats, what I cannot abide is buying counterfeit products. Cannot, will not abide counterfeit products. And so Kim wanted to get some Silpats. She was going to order them. And I said, don't order these. These are counterfeit Silpats. It says it right there. Silpat, counterfeit. Don't fucking buy these. So she was like, well, what about these? And it was Amazon Prime, 2-Day, Amazon Basics Silpats. And I was like, they're probably shitty. But it doesn't matter. Buy them. That's fine. You can use them this year for Christmas cookies. And we did. And we've used them. And Andrew, they're good. They're good. Just like the ones I recommended.
Andrew	I think that's right. So here we are. We are at a place in silicone baking sheets that all things are created equal. Silicone can only get so good.
Unknown	Right.
Andrew	Wow.
Everett	Yeah. Maybe. Until you add robotics to it. Maybe that's right. Yeah, you know, I haven't used these long enough to say like they are better or worse or they're going to be better or they're going to be worse or whatever. But I can say that they do exactly what they're supposed to do. Yeah, they do exactly. And they've worked exactly the way I wanted them to work.
Andrew	These and they fit their cut to fit half sheets. Yes. So if you have some silicone mats, some half sheets, your life just got so much easier. Half sheets are so much easier to bake on and any other oven thing to do.
Everett	Go to the restaurant supply, buy half sheets, get rid of all your mismatched, all non-stick bullshit. Get rid of everything. Yeah. Buy raw aluminum half sheets.
Andrew	And get some quarter sheets too because they're really nice.
Everett	Do you ever serve
Andrew	Stuff on quarter sheets or eight sheets I would but I still have a kid who's small enough that I can't actually family style any dinner Yeah, fair enough.
Everett	We serve family style on half sheets and or on court not half sheets on quarter sheets So just stick and it looks good.
Andrew	It does the ones I got I got some I don't they're like an Amazon Buy they stained fast and it's really hard to get the stay.
Everett	I like the stains. I like the stains I'll I think it looks good. It looks rustic. I dig it
Andrew	I really, I'm going to, I'm going to buy some more and just get rid of all of my other mismatched bullshit because they also fit together so nicely. Oh fuck. There's a reason the restaurants use them. They cook way more than you do. And you should, if you can do the thing that a restaurant is doing reasonably priced, you should be doing it.
Everett	And if you, if you feel in flush, get the Nordic ware cause they're really nice. Yeah, that's true. But you don't have to, you can just go to the restaurant supply and get the ones that are 11 bucks or whatever.
Andrew	Last time I went, they were all out of half sheets.
Everett	The Nordicwear are like 20. Yeah. They're not expensive. Raw aluminum. Don't get any of the coatings. If it's coated, just don't, unless you know exactly what you want and why you're doing it.
Andrew	And you can't, they don't warp. This has turned into just a half sheet show. I know. We're not even talking about half sheets today. So your, your Amazon basic Silpat ripoffs. Yes. Get them. You sent me. They're very good. You sent me a color palette.
Everett	We can talk about that later. It's not your other thing. Yes. So link will be in the show notes. And yeah. Andrew, do we have anything else that we need to talk about that you feel like you absolutely must talk about that if you don't talk about it? One last thing. Oh Jesus.
Andrew	Thank you to all of you out there listening to us yammer on about all of the bullshit You've listened to us talk about, we have both had the privilege of getting to meet many of you in person and we've been super blessed by that and are really grateful for it. We're really appreciative for this thing that we started in a spare bedroom and eventually evolved into a bonus room. Uh, We're really, really thankful for you guys. We've had an awesome year. We've had a lot of fun doing this and we are really, really happy that you have been on the ride with us. We appreciate this community and a happy end to 2022. Happy new year.
Unknown	And that's it.
Andrew	That's the thing I had to get off my chest.
Everett	I like it. That's such a kind and, and a nice thing to say to these people. I don't think, I don't think they deserved it, but I don't agree with any of that.
Andrew	It was the obligatory end of the year, sentimental thing. You're supposed to do that, right?
Everett	Yeah. No, I think that's right. Yeah. Yeah. It's what we talked about. You just make stuff up about how you're thankful.
Unknown	Yeah.
Everett	Andrew, do you mind if we take a second to thank our sponsors? We need to. This episode of 40 in 20, the Watch Clicker podcast is brought to you by Escapement Media. If you're starting a new watch brand or have an existing brand, Escapement Media has your photography and video needs covered. Once you see the photos, you won't be able to escape. Check Escapement out at escapementmedia.com. By Foster Watches. Great effing watches. Check out the 11 Atmos Skin Diver now on sale at fosterwatches.com. And by Frank Affronti Photography. Offering images and video of real watches on real adventures. Your favorite divers from 100 feet below to 14,000 feet up. Now accepting underwater bookings for March of 2023 at affrontography.com. Links to all of those will be available in the show notes. And more importantly, look guys, seriously, this is a serious thing. Tell your friends. If you want to advertise on 4820 The Watch Clicker Podcast, send us an email at hello at watchclicker.com. And thanks you guys for joining us for this episode of 40 in 20 the watch clicker podcast. You can check us out at watch clicker.com cause that's the website. That's where we post everything, including every episode of this podcast articles, reviews, et cetera. You can also check us out on Instagram at 40 and 20 underscore watch clicker or at watch clicker where we post photos and updates on what's going on on the website. If you want to support us, you can do that at patreon.com slash 40 and 20. That's how we pay for all this fine, fine equipment, software, hardware, hosting, et cetera. There's a lot of money there. We really appreciate your support. And don't forget to check us out next Thursday in 2023 for another hour of watches, food, drinks, life, and other things we like.